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Dll Girls Team and Individual
Polls aren't perfect, and the quality of information that goes into them has a lot to do with it. When judging the veracity of the MSTCA Team Polls for Girls' Dl (That's the combined Classes of D1 and D2), here were some of the problems. There are teams out there that don't show up at some of the bigger meets, so it is tough to figure how strong they are even if they breeze through their own league (Masconomet for example). Teams that do show up may have runners that either sit out or “run thru” the meet – ergo, not a true indication of their strength.
That isn't the only thing making the task difficult. Late season injuries, or the return of a quality runner (D-Y's Colleen Wetherbee) can completely change the complexion of a team.
Then there is the completely unpredictable. Who would have picked Anya Price to finish 2 nd ? Some individuals and teams stepped up big, while other picked the worst possible day for a flat performance.
I picked D-Y to win even without Colleen Wetherbee. When she passed me at the 500M mark I was surprised, but knew it would just secure my prediction. With the extra boost, both mental and physical, D-Y trounced the competition. Even without Wetherbee, it would have easily been Dolphin Day. Caitlyn Crosby had her usual solid day and frosh Megan Barry had a great one. Even though she wasn't needed, Wetherbee needed a race to get ready for next week. This was her first competition since having surgery on the fascia of her shins to relieve constriction. A week ago I wouldn't have guessed she'd be ready. When she went to retrieve an inhaler for a teammate, she had a noticeable limp. But by midweek she was able to do a 5 and a 7 and everything fell into place. It would have been tough to start her comeback on Northfield.
Marshfield had an off meet, not that it would have made a difference. Ali Gregory had a great day for herself. At first, I thought Molly Shanley was a little off, but even though she was 4 places higher, or is it lower, lets call it not as good, Molly was 8 seconds faster than last year. In any case, it's tough to win when your 5 th runner is over 50 points.
The next three were as close as I've seen. Masco (171), Franklin (172) and Westford Academy (173)
I was tempted to rank Masconomet higher, but I just didn't know enough about them. Had I known that they could place two runners in the top 8 (Sarah Moniz 4 th , frosh Abbey D'Agostion 8 th ) it would have put into better perspective the fact that their #5 has been more than two minutes slower than the leaders. Having to take 76 points for 5 th hurt a little, but not enough to keep them from sporting those new red and white striped shirts at Northfield. I thought they were very chic.
Franklin looked to be in a dogfight for a spot. They were helped when Concord-Carlisle and Whitman Hanson had off days, but not as much as they helped themselves by running like they really wanted it. Kathleen Ryan stepped up big-time – but she's my one told you so. I actually picked her to get 10 th so the 14 th wasn't a big surprise to me. I've watched her closely of late and expected her to bust out. I didn't expect Lianne Swanson to be right with Lea Godfrey. That, along with a good performance by Kate O'Koren sealed the deal. Lindsey Booth wasn't herself, but the good news is her re-appearance next week makes them even stronger.
The last qualifier was Westford Academy. Their success wasn't up-front. It was the ability to get #5 into 51 st place. I was going to call them the “no-name” squad because they graduated the marquee names of Stephanie Pancoast and Elizabeth Powell. Only two of their top 5 even ran in this race last year. But they have guaranteed instant name recognition with frosh Nicole Kibblehouse.
The team I really expected to see go on was Concord-Carlisle. The only team to get a 5 th runner in front of them was D-Y and had Wetherbee not run Theresa Fritz-Endres would have been the highest placing 5 th of the day (instead of Brooke Fallon who would have become D-Y's 4 th ). I'm not positive about what happened but I had predicted Ginny Keesler as a top 10. She was their top performer at the Dual County Championship. After leading the team all year she ended up their #6. I liken it to a flock of geese following a leader. If the leader falls there is disarray in the formation. They were running a good team race, just not at the right pace. Entering the wilderness loop they had fallen too far off the people they needed to run with, and all the heroics over the last mile couldn't pull it out.
I thought Whitman-Hanson might grab a spot in the top 5. Jill Alves was exactly where I picked her at 15 th , but the spread to her other teammates was much greater than usual. Natick had an awesome day up front going 1-2 with Rebecca White and Anya Price but even that wasn't enough. Still 7 th is a good spot for a team that scored 189 points with three runners.
Here's how I saw the top 25
2. Anya Price – Never in a hundred years would I have guessed this one. One of the top performances of the day.
3. Caitlin Crosby – Just where I picked her. She is dependable enough to set your watch.
4. Sara Moniz – This is a girl I just didn't know enough about. The only results I had on her were the third place in the Cape Ann League – 1:15 behind Keely Maguire. I just didn't know how that would compute. I missed by a mile predicting her 23 rd .
5. Alix Gregory – Good sophomores always scare me. State meet of 10 th grade is a common break-thru race. Still I knew she was going to run good because I had picked her 12 th .
6. Stephanie McNamara – I picked her second, a spot she held entering the wilderness loop and regained entering the last loop on the field. But in the effort of trying to push the envelope and staying with White, it took the kick out of her and more cautious runners reeled her in over the last 200.
7. Kassandra Kluge – I picked her 4 th , a spot she missed by 8 seconds.
8. Abbey D'Agostino – the other Masco underestimated runner. She was close to Moniz in their league meet (5 seconds) so when I miss-guessed Sarah I was bound to miss her. She was the fastest frosh in Dll.
9. Colleen Wetherbee – I should have asked her or coach Hoar if she was going to run. Probably neither was absolutely sure the week before. But it made sense to run easy to get her competition legs back. It messed me up not knowing ahead.
10. Kelly O'Connor – Close to the 8 th place that I picked her. I figured she and Kluge would work together and they did, to the benefit of both.
11. Lauren Lesniak – She wasn't even her team's top runner at the Boston Invitational where she ran 20:08. So I left her off my list. She posted 19:43 so she certainly deserved more credit than I gave her.
12. Megan Barry – second highest frosh in Class ll. I figured 17 th for her, but she sniffed the aroma of a meet title and got hungry.
13. Christine Meagher – Quite a bit lower than I figured. I thought 5 th . But she's run a lot of tough races in a short period of time. She and Brett Lewis have banged heads at least once a week for over a month. Who figured 19:46 would get 13 th . That's only 15 seconds out of the place I predicted. If she could have duplicated her 19:32 from the Boston Invitational she'd have been there. Instead she was just over her 19:42 from CMI.
14. Kathleen Ryan – I wonder how many people thought I was nuts picking her 10 th . She has run 3 rd or 4 th for her team all season. But, I'd yet to see her put it out there like she does in the 400M. It always seemed like she was running well within herself. Knowing coach Sweeney, I'd be hiding too before he'd make me run 8 laps instead of 1. She's a soph, so I expected this to be her honest debut.
15. Jill Alves – Just where I picked her. I get lucky once in awhile.
16. Emily Lipman – I knew about her, but only a little so I picked her 25 th . I know so little that I called her Lipton. The good news is that she goes to Northfield. The bad news is that in any other division she would have won a medal. Sixteen girls in this division broke 20.
17. Kailin Rose – I picked her 14 th . She missed her Boston Invitational time by two seconds.
18. Molly Shanley – I picked her 7 th . No harm, no foul. She goes on anyway based on team results. She's still in the mix for a good placement at Northfield and is critical to any success Marshfield may have.
19. Kristen Martin – She ran 20:25 at CMI so it didn't draw my attention. Figures someone from CC had to come thru since they were a solid team.
20. Lauren Almeida – Another lucky guess. It is the exact place I picked her. She ran 19:53 at the Boston Invitational so I opined that she'd have to be in the mix. And no! I didn't use a thesaurus to come up with opined!
21. Jen Muse – I didn't pick her in my top 25. When things go good they often go great. I hope Jim Hoar bought a lottery ticket Saturday night, because he hit the jackpot on 11/11.
22. Gwen Teutsch – Another bulls-eye. She actually improved from the Boston Invite (20:27) to the CMI (20:21) to the Class 11 (20:12). Not too many prople can say that. Another sophomore success story, especially since she was 76 th last year!!
23. Suzanne Parker – Here's another freshman that I ignored. Who can blame me? I know I've seen her name before, but I can't even find out where. She's a frosh. She ran fast. Who knew?
24. Katelyn Allen – Another one that I got right. Maybe I should start playing the lottery. 20:15 How did I guess this one? She was only 20:44 at the Boston Invitational. She was better at Northfield but still not a top-25 kid. Katelyn placed 13 th at State Coaches in 20:08, which showed she was rounding into form. Running nearly the same time at Franklin Park is impressive.
25. Sara Bonano – I only did a top 24 on northrunning.com. I still wouldn't have picked her 25 th despite the fact that evidence was there if you dug deep enough. At the Merrimack Valley Championship she was 10 th , just 16 seconds behind teammate Kailin Rose. Here she was only 15 seconds behind. Looks right, doesn't it?
Those are the top-25. Who did I predict would make it, but fell short.
Start with my #6, Brett Lewis. It must have been a combination of being less than 100% healthy (and I never divulge my sources – jail me if you have too) She also went out in that very fast pack of three. The conservative runners were more successful. Brett went for the gusto – but ended up busto. Now you may think that's cruel, but I know a little about her. She'll be back with a vengeance.
My #13 Brooke Fallon – This pick was more heart than mind. She spent the end of indoor season and all of outdoors injured. Every so often it looked like she was back on track. Just not there yet.
My #16 Lindsey Booth – I'm sure Lindsey would agree that this wasn't a great meet for her. She was 54 seconds off her Boston Invitational time. She'll bounce back this week. I had to say that or she'd really punish us in the 800M and 4X400 the rest of the year. Lindsey – if your out there reading you know I'm a big fan.
My 18 th Lauren Donohue - 29 th in 20:25. Marshfield just didn't have a great meet. I have to wonder if the Wetherbee factor got to a few of them.
My 19 th Laura Cunningham – Placed 49 th in 21:03. An off day at 32 seconds slower than her CMI effort.
My 21 st Lea Godfrey – 27 th in 20:22. She was 13 seconds faster at the Boston Invitational. I wasn't there. Did they run the full distance? A lot of runners ran faster on Sept. 30 th than Nov. 11 th . Still, she was over 40 seconds faster than last year at this meet. I know she's a big reason they're returning to “the big dance”.
Just one final thought. Competition is just that. You risk, and in doing so you rise or fall. And if you fall you get the opportunity to pick yourself back up, dust off your knees and give it another shot.
Some mighty runners went home sad. Others found out something about themselves that they never knew. For those continuing on to next week, you open yourselves up to either possibility. But, especially for those who come back next year, remember the lesson shown by the following.
Anya Price ‘05=33 ‘06=2th
Stephanie McNamara '05=34 ‘06=6th
Cassie Kluge ‘05=35 ‘06=7 th
Jill Alves ‘05=57th ‘06=15 th
Gwen Teusch ‘05=76 th ‘06=22 nd
And finally Caitlin Crosby = 79 th ‘06=3rd