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Who to watch – Team

 

To narrow my field of focus, I started by looking at the most recent MSTCA Poll, which listed the following teams from Dll in their Dl State Finals Poll.

 

3. Marshfield

4. Dennis-Yarmouth

9. Concord-Carlisle

10. Whitman Hanson

11. Franklin

12. Natick

15. Westford

16. Masconomet

17. Central Catholic

19. Reading

 

The only other team that I can see as a possible contender is Beverly, so I'll add them to the mix.

 

In order to analyze the Dll team championship I looked at a variety of factors. The most compelling are head-to-head match-ups at big meets. This year the CMI wasn't as important in this process – but still told me a few things. What I did garner is another reassurance that D-Y can still compete at a high level without Colleen Weatherbee. The team times compare favorably with last year's state class performance, at least in spots 3-5. Spots 1 and 2 were slower but it is likely that Crosby and Fallon can close those gaps. It also proved that Reading shouldn't be treated lightly. They beat a Whitman-Hanson team who in turn beat Franklin at the Hockomock Invitational, but a top 5 performance will be difficult based on the possibility that runners 3-5 may all be over 21 minutes.

 

The Baystate Invitational at Northfield may have told more, with four of the teams that bear watching went head-to-head. D-Y just edged Marshfield by two points (81-83). Natick wasn't much further back at 99. Then Concord-Carlisle chimed in at 125 points. A close look at C-C shows that they most likely ran it as a training day, since runners 2,3,4 were together, something that hasn't happened in any serious meet. This was the day Marshfield established their credibility, and they've done nothing to diminish the shine since then.

 

Other big meets I looked at included MSTCA Invitational, Boston Invitational, Amherst Invitational, Brown Invitational, South Coast Invitational and the Hockomock Invitational.

 

Then I perused any league championship results I could find on coolrunning.com.

 

Masconomot and Beverly have been hard to handicap, but they had impressive performance in winning their league championships, their team depth and 1-5 spreads looking like a favorable large meet transfer.

 

Here's my picks.

 

#1. Dennis-Yarmouth – I feel strong about the damage that Caitlin Crosby and Brooke Fallon will do. Marshfield will win the battle at the #4 spot. I consider 3and 5 toss-ups. But I also think this one will be close.

 

#2. Marshfield – They looked pretty good at the MSTCA Invite last weekend. That included two solid placements in the Jr. Senior race by Molly Shanley and Katelyn Allen. In the soph race Alix Gregory (19:58), Maggie McGill (21:05) and Maggie Dow (21:07) posted good times. That doesn't even include Lauren and Caitlin Donohue who ran 3 and 5 for them at Northfield.

 

#3. Here it gets difficult. I have a hard time predicting how Concord Carlisle will run but if they have a good day they'll be third. If not they could be 5 th or 6 th . Ginny Keesler and Olivia Cooney will have to put up some low #'s.

 

#4. Franklin – Maybe this is my Hockomock League bias, but I think they will turn the tables on Whitman-Hanson, a team that beat them at the Hockomock Invitational. Leah Godfrey, Lindsey Booth and Kathleen Ryan will all go under 20:00. Lianne Swanson won't be far behind. Siohban Duffy or Kate O'Koren will have to get down around 21:00.

 

#5. Beverly – They came so close last year and won't want to be left out again. They'll find a way to get it done. Picking them between Franklin and Whitman Hanson will be like drawing an inside straight. But, I've done that before.

 

#6. Whitman-Hanson – I've probably given them enough ammunition to send their performances sky-rocketing

 

#7. Natick – My gut tells me they'll place higher. But since I've lost weight my gut isn't as much of a factor. I just can't find a spot for them ahead of these teams.

 

#8. Reading Memorial – I'm hooked on a feeling. That feeling tells me they'll be on fire Saturday.

 

#9. Westford Academy – Missing their big guns from last year but still pretty good.

 

#10. Central Catholic – I really don't know. Now I'm just guessing.

 

#11. Masconomet – I just think their spread will be too large and no low point scorers to offset it.

 

#12. – Anyone's game now. Try Gloucester, Dracut, Notre Dame, Needham, Mansfield

 

 

A little more information on some teams.

 

 

Beverly – 6 th in Division ll in '05 just five points out of 5 th .

 

Northeast Conference Champion with 41 points over runner-up Swampscott's 66. Led by Kasey Kluge and Kelly-O'Connor who went 1-3 in that meet. Broken up by Avery McNiff of Gloucester. Kluge ran 19:33 and O'Connor 20:03 on the Bradley Palmer State Park course.

 

Concord-Carlisle – 2 nd in Division ll in ‘05

 

Even though they graduated three from last year's top 5, they look just as tough. Third in the toughest conference – Dual County. They lost to Lincoln-Sudbury and by only 2 points to Newton South. Led by much-improved sophomore Ginny Keesler, their spread is less than a minute and their #6 isn't much behind that. The middle of their order include battle-tested seniors Olivia Cooney, and Cricky Cicchetti. They placed 5 th at Northfield but didn't run their full squad, or at full speed.

 

Dennis-Yarmouth – 1 st in Division ll in ‘05

 

Despite the absence of Colleen Weatherbee, DY still placed 2 nd (top D2 team) at Northfield Mountain. Caitlin Crosby has stepped up big for them, placing 4 th at Northfield. Frosh Megan Barry has been a solid addition, posting great times all season. The key will be keeping #5 within sight of the leaders – something that didn't happen at Northfield. They also placed 1 st at the CMI at Franklin Park a meet that showed both their strength and weakness – the latter being no margin for error or sickness. The drop off to the next runner is nearly two minutes.

 

Franklin – 5 th in Division ll in ‘05

 

Franklin has only lost to very good teams this year. They lost 2 of the top 5 from last year, one senior and one transfer. But, they are led by quality seniors Lindsey Booth and Lea Godfrey. The addition of soph Kathleen Ryan and improvement of junior Lianne Swanson puts them in a solid spot. Though they may not have a top-spot runner this year their top 4 can run with 15 seconds and their 5 th is never more than 45 seconds behind the leader. They may put their top 3 under 20 minutes. They have made reservations at the state finals every year since Pat Sweeney took over as coach, and this year should be no different.

 

 

Marshfield – 4 th in ‘05

 

Molly Shanley led the team to 3 rd at the BayState Invitational, finishing just two points behind Dennis-Yarmouth on the Northfield course. 2 nd to D-Y in the Atlantic-Coast Conference in the dual meet season.

 

Masconomet – 12 th in Division ll in ‘05

 

Edged Hamilton-Wenham 39-40 in the Cape Ann League championship meet. Led by Sarah Moniz and Abbey D'Agostino Their 1-3 runs close with a drop off to #4 of less than a minute. Total drop from the leader to #5 is nearly two minutes.

 

Natick – 10 th in Division ll in '05

 

3 rd in tough BayState League behind Newton North and Wellesley. High placements up front led by Rebecca White and Anya Price but the drop off after that is pretty steep. They'll be trying to edge up slightly from last year.

Reading Memorial – 17 th in Dll in ‘05

 

Reading has come a long way since last year. One of their most telling meets was on the same site as this upcoming meet – Franklin Park. They were 3 rd in the CMI, outdistancing Whitman Hanson by two points (122-124). They were well back of winner D-Y (76)

 

Westford Academy – 3 rd in Division ll in '05 just 1 point out of 2nd

 

Whitman-Hanson – 9 th in Division ll in ‘05

 

Won the Hockomock League Invitational by 5 points over Franklin. Lead by Jill Alves and Laura Cunningham. The addition of frosh Caitlin Ryan has made them much more competitive and if Nicole Affannato can keep it under 21:00 minutes as in '05 they'll have a solid top 4. Predicted spread 1-5 is 1:20.