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There are a few individuals that may finish near the top - but don't have to because there team will make it. I consider the only two sure-fire state finals teams to be D-Y and Marshfield. They've battled tooth and nail all year, and will finish 1-2 on Saturday.
That means that runners like Caitlin Crosby, Brooke Fallon, Molly Shanley and Alix Gregory don't have to worry about themselves - only how their performance will affect the chance to place 1st.
Of those four, Caitlin Crosby will finish the highest, somewhere between 2nd and 5th. Taking over for Colleen Wetherbee is impossible, but she hasn't faltered under the role as D-Y's #1 runner. She also is one of the runners to make the most progress this year, having placed 79th last year in 21:53. This year she's already run 19:36 at Franklin Park in the CMI's. Teammate Brooke Fallon placed 6th in 19:41. She was injured during much of the winter and spring, but is now on the mend. She was down to 20:05 at CMI and the lower she dips tomorrow, the better her team's chances of repeating as Division ll Champion. Another D-Y runner to watch is freshman Megan Barry who's shown flashes of brilliance in some races.
Marshfield's Molly Shanley could also make it as an individual. She was 14th as a sophomore last year, leading her team to 4th, and has been running just as solid in '06 (6th at SCI last week). She placed just ahead of Fallon at Northfield Moutain in mid-October. In that race, soph Alix Gregory was only seven seconds behind Shanley.
There are a lot of runners who help to bump their teams into the top 5, but if not still hope to make it on their own. Beverly, Natick can be real spoilers because they have multiple runners capable of stealing individual spots should their teams fall short.
Beverly's sophomore Kelly O'Connor (1st in the MSTCA Invite soph race) and Kasey Kluge (9th in the MSTCA Jr-SR race - 3rd CMI at 19:34 in Franklin Park, 1st in Northeast Conference Championship) will both place high. Natick's Rebecca White is the closest to a sure thing. The absence of Wetherbee and last year's winner Kristen Kasper may have opened the door to a White-wash. She was 10th as a freshman last year and has only added to her credentials. She was the first D2 runner at Northfield, outdistancing Crosby by 18 seconds, and ran 19:22 at Franklin Park during her Sept. 30th Boston Invitational win. Most impressive, she was merely 12 seconds behind Jessica Barton in their league championship. Teammate Anya Price has also put up some great races including 19:40 at Boston.
Before I check in with some more contending teams - namely, Franklin, Concord-Carlisle, Whitman-Hanson, Reading and Masconomet, I'm going to preview a few runners whose fortunes will have to rest on individual placements. North Attleboro's Stephanie McNamara has kept a low profile until last week. Earlier in the season she was second at the Hockomock League Championship behind OA's Jenna Davidner but has only been to one other high level race. This past weekend she placed 2nd at the SCI, beating among others , Crosby, Shanley, and Kluge. She was a state finalist in the two-mile last spring, and her 19:15 at Wrentham is evidence that she's ready for tomorrow.
Perhaps the best individual head-to-head race will be between Fontbonne's Chrissy Meagher and Notre Dame's Brett Lewis (2nd SCI soph race). They've gone at each other many times this season and its always been close. Expect them to be side-by-side with a mile to go. Meagher has the most victories in this match-up (including a 9-second victory in the Catholic Conference Championship) but Lewis was faster last week.
Tewksbury's Cailin Rose (13th in the class meet last year) and Emily Lipton of Needham (beat Price in the league meet) are two other runners that must hope to place high, neither team expecting to go on. Both may end up behind Gloucester's Avery McNiff - 2nd to Kluge in the Northeast Conference (23rd in D2 last year).
Back to team leaders! Concord-Carlisle's soph Ginny Keesler has had quite a season after placing 75th in the class last year. She had a minor dip last week at SCI but starred in the Dual County Meet. Olivia Cooney is a senior who just may break thru on Saturday.
I'm running so here's the rest of my line-up.
For Franklin: Any one of three - Lindsey Booth (8th last year), Lea Godfrey (20:01 in Sept. at Franklin Park) or Kathleen Ryan (fast improving soph) could make an impact.
For Whitman-Hanson: Jill Alves and Laura Cunningham both beat Franklin's top runner at the Hock Invitational, Fontbonne's Meagher beating them both in that race.
For Masconomet : I haven't seen results of Sarah Moniz vs. top runners, but she grabbed third place in the Cape Ann League Championship with teammate Abbey D'Agostino just 5 seconds back.
Reading sophomore Lauren Almeida ran 19:33 at Wrentham which positions her as a possible top-20 kid.
MY PICKS
1. Rebecca White
2. Stephanie McNamara
3. Caitlin Crosby
4. Casy Kluge
5. Chrissy Meagher
6. Brett Lewis
7. Molly Shanley
8. Kelly O'Connor
9. Ginny Keesler
10. Kathleen Ryan
11. Anya Price
12. Alix Gregory
13. Brook Fallon
14. Cailin Rose
15. Jill Alves
16. Lindsey Booth
17. Megan Barry
18. Lauren Donohue
19. Laura Cunningham
20. Lauren Almeida
21. Lea Godfrey
22. Gwen Teusch
23. Sarah Moniz
24. Katelyn Allen
24. Emily Lipton
There you have it. If I guessed 15 of 25 even close I'll feel lucky. 20 and I'll be tough to live with.
If your runner scores high and I didn't mention her, write to remind me how little I know.